Despite having no smartglasses product, Apple ranked for the reason that third most important smartglasses platform after Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Leap in a up to the moment survey of AR/VR trade insiders by way of Digi-Capital and AWE. While this highlights Apple’s natural advantages and trade reinforce, how does a company which hasn’t even hinted at a product rank higher than trade veterans like Google?
(Assets: Digi-Capital/AWE AR/VR World Industry Survey Would in all probability 2019. See additional component in Digi-Capital AR/VR Analytics Platform and Augmented/Virtual Reality Report. Apply: percentages no longer cumulative. Survey by way of AR/VR adviser Digi-Capital and Augmented World Expo (“AWE”) of AR/VR CEOs, C-Suite execs, corporate VPs and AWE crew folks, no longer customers. Statistics are trade perspectives most efficient. Way described in report)
Smartglasses’ 5 difficult eventualities
There are five difficult eventualities for particular person smartglasses to scale: hero gadget (i.e. an Apple top quality gadget, whether or not or no longer made by way of Apple or anyone else), all-day battery life, mobile connectivity, app ecosystem, and price. While hero gadget gets most attention (we’ll come once more to it), two of the other difficult eventualities are non-trivial.
Until a large step ahead in battery technology, a lightweight pair of standalone AR smartglasses doing heavy duty AR is hard to power all day and not using a battery pack or scorching swappable batteries (glorious for endeavor, a harder advertise for customers). And as history has confirmed, it’s a large likelihood for developers to invest in construction apps for new platforms until installed base reaches scale. That’s the chicken-and-egg problem of all new tech platforms.
Examining the five difficult eventualities inside the context of Apple’s roadmap, Digi-Capital first forecast Apple launching smartphone-tethered smartglasses in late 2020 over three years previously. Then again while Apple remains sphinxlike, most efficient Tim Cook and his inner circle in point of fact know if and when that may happen, and what it’s going to appear to be.
If Apple smartglasses free up as a best fee smartphone peripheral, no longer everyone is happy to pay for or elevate two devices (e.g. Apple Watch). Apple might nevertheless advertise numerous tens of tens of hundreds of thousands of “Apple Glasses” to early-adopter customers by way of 2023, which may also drive bring-your-own-device endeavor name for. Standalone smartglasses as a mass-consumer smartphone change look further out.
Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Bounce
Smartglasses have largely been endeavor focused, with temporary installed bases inside the tens of 1000’s (e.g., Vuzix, Google Glass Undertaking Model) to plenty of 1000’s (Microsoft HoloLens 2 with its 100,000 unit US Army contract). Digi-Capital forecasts endeavor smartglasses scaling to tens of hundreds of thousands of consumers by way of 2023, driven by way of Microsoft, Google and a variety of startups. Magic Bounce is author/developer (and endeavor) focused in recent times, with its particular person play a medium-term prospect.
In that context, it isn’t sudden that Microsoft HoloLens and Magic Bounce are spotted by way of the trade as crucial smartglasses platforms in recent times. Then again despite no Apple product in sight, the survey implies that the company usually is a critical contender if it chooses to enter. Viewing a conceivable Apple free up right through the lens of smartglasses’ five difficult eventualities, it becomes more uncomplicated to seem why.
Apple of my eye
If anyone is going to free up Apple top quality smartglasses, it’s Apple. Despite a tale of the company being additional evolutionary than fashionable in recent times, Apple’s design apply record remains a standout.
Till Apple has a secret battery technology beneath wraps, smartphone-tethered smartglasses usually is a wise way to the battery drawback with provide technology. Physically tethering smartglasses by way of twine might be upper for battery life (two batteries during iPhone and Apple Glasses, plus no wireless comms between devices), on the other hand is inconsistent with Apple’s peripherals roadmap (e.g. Watch, AirPods). Apple might transfer down the wired path with its lightning connector, on the other hand wireless might see it favoring form over function.
Cell connectivity is a non-issue if there is a tethered iPhone inside the mix, no longer like Wi-Fi-based HoloLens and Magic Bounce. The impact of 5G when prevalent for AR Cloud (a 3D knowledge layer for the real world) might turn out to be every other problem.
ARKit installed base is able to approach three quarters of 1 thousand million devices this year, and top 800 million in 2020 (apply: mobile AR installed base is acceptable/configured devices, no longer full of life consumers — a lower amount). Then again the issue for mobile AR is necessary use cases, to turn into person revel in come what may that buyers care about and that couldn’t be completed each and every different way. Pokémon Go, messaging filters and Google Maps are a get began, on the other hand additional necessary use cases are sought after.
While use cases must continue to evolve, Apple Glasses might be supported at free up by way of a developer ecosystem with three years’ ARKit revel in by way of late 2020. In some ways this explains Tim Get ready dinner and Apple’s relentless point of interest on ARKit since 2017. Digi-Capital analysis moreover shows ARKit cheap income in line with person (ARPU) is over two occasions Google’s ARCore ARPU, and ARCore has a smaller 400 million installed base in recent times (no longer forecast to move ARKit until 2021). Together with Apple’s integrated ecosystem, this may scale back developer problems about investing in a brand spanking new Apple peripheral platform after the moderately gradual burn of Apple Watch.
Apple has years of pricing revel in with iPhone peripherals, so Apple Glasses might free up as the most expensive Apple peripheral thus far (i.e., more than Watch, less than iPhone). This may prohibit product sales to innovators and early-adopters for 12-18 months following free up, with Apple following its standard pricing roadmap to attract early-majority customers for the reason that market develops.
Any other good thing about a smartphone-tethered approach, if that’s how Apple rolls, is to scale back bill-of-materials costs compared to all-in-one (e.g., HoloLens) or breakout-box (e.g., Magic Bounce) solutions by way of sharing the compute power with the iPhone. This is every other of Apple’s natural advantages versus non-smartphone players, leaving the company with conceivable room to move on pricing. This receive advantages could also be shared by way of smartphone festival (e.g., Samsung) within the match that they free up similar products.
Who wins smartglasses?
While it’s too early to tell for consumer smartglasses, enterprise smartglasses are already driving ROI for firms like Lockheed Martin. While this is encouraging for Microsoft, Magic Bounce and other smartglasses players, every other statistic from the survey can provide them pause for idea.
Digi-Capital and AWE’s survey covers all number one AR/VR platforms, no longer merely smartglasses. The rest survey in Q3 2018 was once prior to Facebook announcing premium-standalone VR Oculus Quest, at a time when most efficient the Oculus Santa Cruz prototype that preceded it had been printed. That earlier prototype registered 41 reinforce from the trade inside the 2018 survey, which grew 1.5 cases to 61 reinforce for the Oculus Quest free up product this year.
Apple has already attracted 43 trade reinforce for a smartglasses product about which it has discussed and printed no longer anything else. So it’s no longer unreasonable to invest a larger relative uplift supporting Apple Glasses if and when it launches. While HoloLens inventor Alex Kipman and Magic Bounce CEO Rony Abovitz must feel free about their trade reinforce in recent times, Apple might get a large number of love from the trade if it chooses to take them on.
Tim Merel is Managing Director and Isabelle Hierholtz is Individual Method Director of Silicon Valley AR/VR adviser Digi-Capital. Merel it will be presenting additional component in his keynote at the field’s greatest AR/VR conference and expo AWE 2019 in Santa Clara on Would in all probability 29th.